At the beginning of the week, the euro has risen to the highest level in more than three years on the forex, under the influence of optimism about the Eurozone economy and expectations about the phasing out of the long-term government bond buyback program of the European Central Bank.
EUR / USD currency pair rose to $ 1,2296 Monday, the highest position since the end of 2014. A week ago, the most important currency pair on the forex was still around $ 1.19.
On Monday it became known that the trade surplus of the Eurozone has risen to the highest level in 8 months, which indicates that European companies are not affected by the stronger euro for the time being (the common currency was still falling under the $ 1.04).
That the euro is doing so well has everything to do with the booming economy of the Eurozone, which according to Bloomberg economists surveyed this year around 2.2 percent will come true, close to the highest growth in 10 years of last year, estimated to was 2.4 percent.
plus500 act in crypto coins
Strategists from JP Morgan expect the economy of the Eurozone to grow faster in 2018 than in the US, and they are not the only ones.
In the meantime the dollar is under pressure because market players are increasingly exchanging their dollar investments for investments in better yielding markets, which gives the EUR / USD currency pair extra fuel in the light of the improving global economy.
The euro also benefits from the expectation that this year the ECB will continue to phase out the government bond buy-back program and possibly put it to a halt in September.
From futures data it appears that the number of net long positions in the euro has risen to the highest ever during the past week.
Forex analysts point out that at some point there will probably also be a (temporary) correction in the euro, for example because the ECB will try to talk the euro down by emphasizing when interest rate decisions that the time is still needed. to very broad monetary policy.
But in the mid-long term, forex analysts still provide opportunities for further increases in the euro. Kit Juckes, global strategist at Société Générale in London: “There will be a correction at some point, but the market is going to believe that there is more coming.”
Juckes thinks that the market sees the real value of the euro, given the rebounding Eurozone economy and the expected change in the ECB’s policy, currently between $ 1.25 and $ 1.30.
Credit Agricole analysts also see more opportunities for the euro. “We are going to be bullish on the euro in coming months because we expect that the political risks in the euro zone will finally start abating on a more sustained basis after the March election in Italy.” In addition, we expect the ECB to continue to taper its asset. purchases and, ultimately, stop expanding its balance sheet. ”
Bitcoin is struggling with a $ 13,000 level
Bitcoin, Ethereum and almost all other cryptocurrencies in the top 20 had to surrender at the beginning of the week on the cryptocurrency market.
Bitcoin once again battled with the $ 13,000 limit, after having been unable to break above $ 14,500 earlier in the day, a level that previously also served as a resistance.
This seems to increase the chance that the bitcoin will continue to race between $ 13,000 and $ 14,500 over the coming days, which may offer opportunities for short trips up and down.